Arbitron has announced the results of a new study that looks in part at digital media player impacts on radio. Buried in the "it's okay" message to Arbitron's customers -- radio stations -- are some interesting numbers.

The study states that 30% of Americans over 12 have an iPod or other similar digital media player -- we'll call them "iPod owners". Based on US census numbers that would be about 73 million units and therefore 73 million listeners. Arbitron also says only 13% of the total audience has ever heard a podcast; that is, listened at least once to a podcast. Extending the sample size to the prospective population of listeners that would be about 32 million Americans have heard a podcast once. If one looks at the subset of American iPod owners however, that amounts to a potential number of only 9.5 million ever having heard a podcast.

So how many listen regularly? Okay, let's be generous and throw in the world and you may have a total number of iPod owners who have heard at least one podcast of maybe 20 million. Lets be generous and say 30 million. Having listened once however does not mean you are a podcast consumer. To do that you have to listen regularly. What's that number? A case could be made that the total number of regular, iPod owning, podcast listeners -- world wide -- is somewhere between 1 and 2 million people. That's not a big prospective audience and given that most of the devices have a fast forward button it explains why paid placement advertising in podcasting is not a growth industry.

There is an opportunity here for a creative approach to audience growth that levers scale, specialty message and unique positioning. Some are attempting -- so far incredibly poorly -- to develop an audience around this concept in podcasting. A key lesson in Arbitron's latest numbers is that podcasters need to stop killing the messenger and the media. Traditional media does have problems. It's burdened with inefficiencies, high costs and captive deals but it generally makes money and it has a large audience.

Podcasting is a niche strategy now and for the immediate future. After 3 to 4 years of stagnant technology development in podcasting it is clear that the only way forward is not with technology or software updates. Business opportunity exists in podcasts that can clearly exhibit a true multi-media, cross-platform experience. Can the content be "re-purposed"? Can it be re-cast for a TV or radio medium? Can it be packaged with training or informational material to create or fulfill a sale?

Audience growth will come from outside podcasting itself. It is and will continue to be virtually impossible to grow audience by promoting only with a podcast to an existing podcast listenership base. Podcasters who can promote a message, product or concept in multiple ways will be able to consistently build audience -- a portion of total audience -- in their podcasts.

Paul Colligan is an author, blogger and podcaster. Paul is also a dedicated self-promoter who earns his livelihood from stuff he tries to sell by way of direct and web marketing. There may be many who find much of what Paul does is over the top. Too much self-promotion, too hard on the pitch, too anxious to sell. As a result there are probably many in the podcasting sphere who pay no attention to Paul. That would not be smart. I still read Paul even though most of his stuff is "swing and a miss"; occasionally he has a hit. Sounds like writing to me.

Recently, Paul asked "Are podcasters slowing down podcasting's growth?" He answers the questions with 13 succinct points. The answer? Yes, podcasters are not doing themselves any favours. Podcaster, do you see yourself in this:
"Begging for reviews at iTunes, the Pickle, the Alley and more while assuring us that they don’t matter.
Bragging that your show isn’t making money while shouting that “traditional media” should follow your model.
Complaining that none of the “big boys” are in this game but failing to produce a model that the big boys might be interested in."

Podcasting is College Radio writ large. Podcasting is model railroading. Podcasting is a nascent on-demand giant, a possible audio/video killer app. Now, however, podcasting is a hopelessly crowded field of audio and video crap.

Podcasting purists can rant and rave until the cows come home. I don't begrudge the fact that people like Paul Colligan, Leesa Barnes, Robert Scoble and Todd Cochrane are hustling like crazy to make a living and find a place in a field they love. Yes they are selling, selling, selling. Yes they shamelessly self-promote. Have you watched network TV lately? They still seem to be making money and they are selling, selling, selling. Hmmm.....

Reality is a wonderful equalizer. If you want a cottage industry, hobby podcast, like the one here at Current Thinking Radio, then don't begrudge the leaders their much larger slice of the pie. Critique and assess -- I do that all the time with the Podshow folks -- but don't deny the obvious. Commercial, marketable, easily accessed, ubiquitously available podcasting will someday be huge. It will happen and it's going to take place without most of the early adopters, the amateur auteurs and the self-appointed rant manics.

Michael Sikorsky, CEO of Cambrian House software, may be mistaken as a man of maxims:

"Cambrian House; its like open source but with money."

"If nobody hates it, nobody will love it."

"Act as if Karma exists."

Listening to Michael at a recent DMAA event in Calgary, Alberta , one could tell that there was more than maxims and slogans to his vibe. Cambrian House is a crowdsource software company with some bright ideas in the web & software space. Michael clearly has an plan for the start, middle and end-game of his ventures. He lays out some interesting plans for marketing and product development in this presentation.

Products can fulfill needs -- "vitamins", solve problems -- "pain killers" or create new categories -- "viagra", of which the Blackberry is a classic technology based example. Listen to Michael as he explains tech marketing and company development in a way that you have never heard before. What's Michael's "bias for action"? How mass collaboration can change everything.

Recorded live by Brad Gibson with great thanks to the Board of the DMAA and Michael Sikorsky. This content is evergreen and is suggested for those interested in:

• marketing
• technology management
• new media development
• business development

This web radio podcast originates from the Current Thinking Radio site at www.ctiweb.net and from the Bradcast, podcasting since 2004 at www.bradfordgibson.net.

Listen to the podcast and enjoy.

When you think about technology leaders one of the names that often comes up is Robert Scoble.

Scoble doesn't run a company, he's not a developer, he hasn't launched an IPO or invented a ubiquitous interface. On the other hand, when you think about conversations in the technical space, Scoble's book "Naked Conversations" does define marketing and interaction in the web and blogging space. Robert Scoble exercises web leadership through his involvement, his curiosity and his enthusiasm.

I caught up with Robert after a long day at Northern Voice 2007 in Vancouver. We talked about what is working for him in his latest videos, the character of Northern Voice, entrepreneurship and recent changes in his career.

Listen to the podcast and enjoy.

NorthernVoice NorthernVoice2007 NV2007
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