Arbitron has announced the results of a new study that looks in part at digital media player impacts on radio. Buried in the "it's okay" message to Arbitron's customers -- radio stations -- are some interesting numbers.
The study states that 30% of Americans over 12 have an iPod or other similar digital media player -- we'll call them "iPod owners". Based on US census numbers that would be about 73 million units and therefore 73 million listeners. Arbitron also says only 13% of the total audience has ever heard a podcast; that is, listened at least once to a podcast. Extending the sample size to the prospective population of listeners that would be about 32 million Americans have heard a podcast once. If one looks at the subset of American iPod owners however, that amounts to a potential number of only 9.5 million ever having heard a podcast.
So how many listen regularly? Okay, let's be generous and throw in the world and you may have a total number of iPod owners who have heard at least one podcast of maybe 20 million. Lets be generous and say 30 million. Having listened once however does not mean you are a podcast consumer. To do that you have to listen regularly. What's that number? A case could be made that the total number of regular, iPod owning, podcast listeners -- world wide -- is somewhere between 1 and 2 million people. That's not a big prospective audience and given that most of the devices have a fast forward button it explains why paid placement advertising in podcasting is not a growth industry.
There is an opportunity here for a creative approach to audience growth that levers scale, specialty message and unique positioning. Some are attempting -- so far incredibly poorly -- to develop an audience around this concept in podcasting. A key lesson in Arbitron's latest numbers is that podcasters need to stop killing the messenger and the media. Traditional media does have problems. It's burdened with inefficiencies, high costs and captive deals but it generally makes money and it has a large audience.
Podcasting is a niche strategy now and for the immediate future. After 3 to 4 years of stagnant technology development in podcasting it is clear that the only way forward is not with technology or software updates. Business opportunity exists in podcasts that can clearly exhibit a true multi-media, cross-platform experience. Can the content be "re-purposed"? Can it be re-cast for a TV or radio medium? Can it be packaged with training or informational material to create or fulfill a sale?
Audience growth will come from outside podcasting itself. It is and will continue to be virtually impossible to grow audience by promoting only with a podcast to an existing podcast listenership base. Podcasters who can promote a message, product or concept in multiple ways will be able to consistently build audience -- a portion of total audience -- in their podcasts.